Open Access Methodology

Probabilistic approach to modeling lava flow inundation: a lava flow hazard assessment for a nuclear facility in Armenia

Laura J Connor1*, Charles B Connor1, Khachatur Meliksetian2 and Ivan Savov3

Author Affiliations

1 University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Ave, Tampa, FL 33620, USA

2 Institute of Geological Sciences of Armenian National Academy of Sciences, Yerevan, Armenia

3 School of Earth and Environment, The University of Leeds, Leeds. LS2 9JT, UK

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Journal of Applied Volcanology 2012, 1:3 doi:10.1186/2191-5040-1-3

Published: 25 January 2012

Abstract

Probabilistic modeling of lava flow hazard is a two-stage process. The first step is an estimation of the possible locations of future eruptive vents followed by an estimation of probable areas of inundation by lava flows issuing from these vents. We present a methodology using this two-stage approach to estimate lava flow hazard at a nuclear power plant site near Aragats, a Quaternary volcano in Armenia.

Keywords:
lava flow simulation; modeling code; probabilistic hazard assessment; spatial density; Monte Carlo method; Armenia